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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 283 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/1628Z from Region 3112 (N22W41). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct,
13 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 09/2320Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 10/0453Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0843Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3586 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Oct 163 Previsto 11 Oct-13 Oct 162/159/155 Media de 90 Días 10 Oct 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 018/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Oct 011/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 008/008-009/012-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Oct a 13 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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