Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 noviembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Nov 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Nov 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/0744Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 03/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5870 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (07
Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Nov 118 Previsto 05 Nov-07 Nov 120/125/125 Media de 90 Días 04 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 016/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Nov 013/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 014/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Nov a 07 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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