Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 noviembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0914Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov,
20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0030Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
18/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
18/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 508 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Nov, 20
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 116 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 001/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 014/020-021/028-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 75% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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