Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 octubre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
22/0542Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct,
24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 22/2044Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 22/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 22/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 572 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 105 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 018/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 020/025-011/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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