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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Dec 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 352 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Dec 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1010Z from Region 3162 (S13W63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 17/2313Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
18/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Dec, 20 Dec) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (21 Dec). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20
Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Dec 156 Previsto 19 Dec-21 Dec 150/145/130 Media de 90 Días 18 Dec 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 011/012-008/010-017/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Dec a 21 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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