Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 enero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 14 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/2021Z from Region 3182 (S18W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 14/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
13/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jan 228 Previsto 15 Jan-17 Jan 225/225/220 Media de 90 Días 14 Jan 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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