Viendo archivo del martes, 20 diciembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Dec 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1406Z from Region 3169 (N21E36). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 20/1517Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at
20/0744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/2052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (23
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Dec 146 Previsto 21 Dec-23 Dec 140/135/125 Media de 90 Días 20 Dec 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 017/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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