Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 diciembre 2022
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/0621Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 20/2108Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 21/0748Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
21/0609Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (24 Dec).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (22 Dec, 23 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 139 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 140/135/130 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 19/12/2025 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
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