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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 9 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jan 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
09/1850Z from Region 3184 (S14E67). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 09/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jan 191 Previsto 10 Jan-12 Jan 192/190/190 Media de 90 Días 09 Jan 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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