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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 19 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jan 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/1012Z from Region 3196 (N12E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 Jan,
21 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 19/0756Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jan 219 Previsto 20 Jan-22 Jan 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 19 Jan 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 011/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 011/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 013/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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