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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 18 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jan 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2329Z from Region 3190 (S14E20). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (19 Jan,
20 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (21 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 18/0405Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
17/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jan 220 Previsto 19 Jan-21 Jan 220/218/215 Media de 90 Días 18 Jan 145
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 012/016-010/012-012/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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