Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 enero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 21 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
20/2247Z from Region 3192 (N16W15). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 21/0908Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23
Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 209 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 205/200/205 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 014/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 011/012-008/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 11/02/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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