Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 48 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
17/2016Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 17/0300Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/0155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 343 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 160/155/145 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 021/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 023/030-012/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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