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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 24 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Jan 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/1435Z from Region 3192 (N16W70). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (27 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 24/1740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Jan a 27 Jan
Clase M35%35%25%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Jan 180
  Previsto   25 Jan-27 Jan 180/175/170
  Media de 90 Días        24 Jan 151

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  013/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Jan a 27 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%15%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%20%
Tormenta Menor35%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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