Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 44 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1556Z from Region 3226 (N11E33). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 469 km/s at 12/2248Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5446 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 65% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 189 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 190/185/185 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 008/010-013/016-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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