Viendo archivo del martes, 14 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 45 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/1212Z from Region 3213 (N28W92). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 13/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1751 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (15 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 180 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 178/178/178 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 011/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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