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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 64 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Mar 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0252Z from Region 3238 (N09W18). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 05/1336Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1459Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6750 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Mar a 08 Mar
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Mar 180
  Previsto   06 Mar-08 Mar 185/190/200
  Media de 90 Días        05 Mar 170

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  017/024
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  016/020-015/016-008/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Mar a 08 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%30%25%
Tormenta Menor25%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%15%15%
Tormenta Menor20%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa65%40%40%

All times in UTC

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