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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Mar 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 66 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Mar 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0405Z from Region 3243 (N18W89). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 07/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3295 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Mar a 10 Mar
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Mar 180 Previsto 08 Mar-10 Mar 180/180/178 Media de 90 Días 07 Mar 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Mar 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Mar 011/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 011/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Mar a 10 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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