Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 39 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
07/2307Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 07/2331Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 08/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 08/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2518 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Feb 192 Previsto 09 Feb-11 Feb 192/195/195 Media de 90 Días 08 Feb 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Feb 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Feb 013/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Feb a 11 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 22/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| febrero 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 81.7 -39.4 |