Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 marzo 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Mar 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 72 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Mar 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/1106Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance
for an M-class flare on day three (16 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 12/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
13/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
13/0137Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 13/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Mar 143 Previsto 14 Mar-16 Mar 142/140/145 Media de 90 Días 13 Mar 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 011/012-020/025-021/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Mar a 16 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 65% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
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