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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 108 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Apr 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 18/1529Z from Region 3280 (S08W94). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 18/2033Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 18/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 18/1549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Apr), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Apr a 21 Apr
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Apr 153
  Previsto   19 Apr-21 Apr 150/145/140
  Media de 90 Días        18 Apr 162

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Apr  006/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  012/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  018/020-017/024-015/016

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Apr a 21 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%25%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa60%60%35%

All times in UTC

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