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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Apr 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Apr 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/0633Z from Region 3281 (S22E14). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 532 km/s at 17/1637Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
17/1144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20
Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Apr 167 Previsto 18 Apr-20 Apr 170/168/168 Media de 90 Días 17 Apr 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Apr a 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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