Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 mayo 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 124 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0844Z from Region 3296 (N16E34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 03/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
03/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6983 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (06 May, 07 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 May a 07 May
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 May 162 Previsto 05 May-07 May 162/162/164 Media de 90 Días 04 May 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 May 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 006/005-011/014-011/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 May a 07 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 128.3 +42.3 |
| Last 30 days | 97.5 +35.7 |
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