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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 128 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2323Z from Region 3296 (N16W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 08/1552Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 07/2345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 08/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10
May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 May). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 May), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (10 May) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (11 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 95% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 May 172 Previsto 09 May-11 May 170/170/170 Media de 90 Días 08 May 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 May 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 May 017/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 013/014-012/018-024/032
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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