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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
09/0354Z from Region 3296 (N15W37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 08/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2315Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38 pfu at 09/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(10 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 May) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 May a 12 May
| Clase M | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 May 180 Previsto 10 May-12 May 180/180/178 Media de 90 Días 09 May 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 May 013/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 May 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 013/025-023/030-011/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 May a 12 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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