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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 132 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/1336Z from Region 3296 (N15W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 12/0615Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 12/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/1232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 592 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 May a 15 May
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 May 149 Previsto 13 May-15 May 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 12 May 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 May 010/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 May 021/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 May a 15 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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