Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 mayo 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/0045Z from Region 3296 (N15W89). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 12/2201Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 13/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
13/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet levels on
day two (15 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 May a 16 May
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 May 144 Previsto 14 May-16 May 145/140/135 Media de 90 Días 13 May 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 May 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 May 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 008/008-005/005-011/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 May a 16 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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