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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
15/1255Z from Region 3336 (S21E54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 14/2214Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 15/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 153 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 155/160/160 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 017/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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