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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jun 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 180 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jun 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
29/1415Z from Region 3354 (N15W16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 29/1432Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2434 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jun), quiet to active levels on day
two (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Jul).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jun a 02 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Jun 162 Previsto 30 Jun-02 Jul 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 29 Jun 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jun 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Jun 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 007/008-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jun a 02 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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