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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jun 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 181 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jun 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/1003Z from Region 3354 (N13W30). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 30/1403Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2632 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jul a 03 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jun 159 Previsto 01 Jul-03 Jul 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 30 Jun 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jun 013/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-008/010-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jul a 03 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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