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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 184 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jul 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
02/2314Z from Region 3354 (N16W58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05
Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 03/2016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
03/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3083 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Jul). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jul a 06 Jul
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jul 173 Previsto 04 Jul-06 Jul 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 03 Jul 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jul a 06 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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