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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/0814Z from Region 3390 (S19E46). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 30/0939Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0415Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 62 pfu at 29/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón30%30%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Jul 174
  Previsto   31 Jul-02 Aug 170/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        30 Jul 165

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul  008/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  008/010-023/030-014/018

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%35%35%
Tormenta Menor05%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%15%
Tormenta Menor20%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%60%45%

All times in UTC

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