Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 julio 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 191 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jul 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/0355Z from Region 3366 (S10W52). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 495 km/s at 10/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 933 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jul 191 Previsto 11 Jul-13 Jul 192/190/188 Media de 90 Días 10 Jul 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 006/005-010/012-011/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
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