Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 218 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/2221Z from Region 3386 (N11W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (07 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 06/0737Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/0314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1623Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17 pfu at 06/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08
Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Aug 174 Previsto 07 Aug-09 Aug 168/166/164 Media de 90 Días 06 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 024/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 009/012-014/020-009/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Aug a 09 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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