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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 210 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jul 2023

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/1624Z from Region 3380 (S10W12). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1338Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu at 29/0920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1205 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Aug). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jul a 01 Aug
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón99%40%40%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Jul 179
  Previsto   30 Jul-01 Aug 175/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        29 Jul 165

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jul  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  009/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  011/015-008/010-023/030

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jul a 01 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%35%
Tormenta Menor10%05%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%10%
Tormenta Menor25%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%60%

All times in UTC

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