Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed at
07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug,
09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (10 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/0136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 170 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 170/165/160 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 024/035-014/015-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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