Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/2152Z from Region 3405 (N10E65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 16/1413Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/1910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 732 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 160 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 160/160/160 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 014/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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