Viendo archivo del martes, 5 septiembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0812Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep,
08 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 05/2057Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/1557Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/1756Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1869 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Sep 143 Previsto 06 Sep-08 Sep 144/142/142 Media de 90 Días 05 Sep 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 014/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 014/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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