Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 221 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/0701Z from Region 3387 (N18W0*). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (10 Aug, 11 Aug) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(12 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 09/0024Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/0803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1244Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 47 pfu at 09/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1772 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Aug 153 Previsto 10 Aug-12 Aug 150/150/150 Media de 90 Días 09 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 008/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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