Viendo archivo del viernes, 6 octubre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Oct 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 279 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Oct 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1817Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct,
09 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 05/2235Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 06/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (09
Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Oct 155 Previsto 07 Oct-09 Oct 156/156/158 Media de 90 Días 06 Oct 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 016/018-009/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 35% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 02/02/2026 | M2.4 |
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