Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 octubre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Oct 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Oct 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/1806Z from Region 3460 (S11E35). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct,
10 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Oct 157 Previsto 08 Oct-10 Oct 156/158/160 Media de 90 Días 07 Oct 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| marzo 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 61.4 -62.2 |