Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 octubre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Oct 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0030Z from Region 3467 (N14W26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct,
23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 21/0338Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 21/0429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 21/0555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 123 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 122/120/118 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 016/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 09/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 85.9 -0 |
| Last 30 days | 92.1 +30.2 |
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