Viendo archivo del domingo, 24 septiembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 267 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0328Z from Region 3445 (S14E05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 24/2000Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 24/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-27 nT at 24/2043Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 24/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1024 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Sep)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Sep 174 Previsto 25 Sep-27 Sep 172/168/164 Media de 90 Días 24 Sep 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 023/028-009/015-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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