Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 diciembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Dec 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2017Z from Region 3514 (N05W94). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Dec) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (19 Dec,
20 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 17/0955Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 17/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 17/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 155 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 147/145/140 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 025/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 013/015-013/015-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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