Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 enero 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jan 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 13 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jan 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the
period was a C2.7 at 13/0421 UTC from a region just beyond the ENE limb.
Region 3541 (S22W33, Dao/beta-delta) exhibited some consolidation and
formed a weak delta configuration. The other 12 spotted regions only had
minor changes throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan,
16 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 13/0056Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jan, 16
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (15 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | NA | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jan 185 Previsto 14 Jan-16 Jan 185/190/190 Media de 90 Días 13 Jan 150
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jan a 16 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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