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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/0453Z from Region 3647 (S13E00). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 19/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 19/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 19/1549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Apr, 22
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Apr,
21 Apr, 22 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Apr a 22 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Apr 213 Previsto 20 Apr-22 Apr 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 19 Apr 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Apr 024/043 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 007/010-011/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Apr a 22 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
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