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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 137 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0804Z from Region 3685 (S13E64). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 16/0528Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 16/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/0656Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 16/1115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 602 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 May a 19 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 May 207 Previsto 17 May-19 May 200/190/180 Media de 90 Días 16 May 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 May 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 May 019/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 013/015-008/008-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 May a 19 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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