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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 112 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
21/1514Z from Region 3638 (S18W35). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Apr, 23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 21/2029Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 21/1705Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 21/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 754 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (22 Apr, 24
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (23 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Apr,
23 Apr, 24 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Apr 217 Previsto 22 Apr-24 Apr 215/215/200 Media de 90 Días 21 Apr 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Apr 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Apr 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 009/010-011/015-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Apr a 24 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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