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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 113 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Apr 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/2152Z from Region 3638 (S18W35). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 22/0457Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 492 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Apr a 25 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Apr 227 Previsto 23 Apr-25 Apr 225/210/190 Media de 90 Días 22 Apr 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Apr 014/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Apr 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 011/015-010/010-017/021
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Apr a 25 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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