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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/2346Z from Region 3654 (S07W63). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (03 May)
and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04
May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 01/0431Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 01/0552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 May, 03 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 May). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 55% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 135 Previsto 02 May-04 May 134/130/132 Media de 90 Días 01 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 016/020-015/018-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 40% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.3 -4.8 |
| Last 30 days | 108.9 +1.7 |